Ford Tennessee Truck
Stanton, TN | Truck Assembly
12-Month Risk Trend
Monthly scores calculated from weighted factor assessments. Historical data reflects month-end evaluations.
Risk Score Breakdown
Four equally-weighted factors. Workforce and power/grid constraints embedded within. Confidence interval reflects data recency and source reliability.
Score Change Log
Audit trail of risk score changes with rationale. Full derivation notes available upon request.
| Date | Old | New | Change | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2026 | -- | -- | -- | Monthly review; see RAID log for details |
Contact info@hccouncil.org for detailed factor-by-factor scoring derivation.
Key Risks
Ford BlueOval City underwent a major strategic pivot on Dec 16, 2025. The $5.6B Tennessee site, originally planned for electric F-150 production, will now manufacture gas-powered "Built Ford Tough" trucks starting 2029. Ford scrapped its next-gen EV pickup citing "lower-than-expected demand, high costs and regulatory changes." The BlueOval SK battery joint venture dissolved, with SK On taking full ownership of the Tennessee battery plant. Initial job targets reduced from 5,800 to approximately 2,300. State incentive clawback provisions may be triggered if 80% workforce targets aren't met by 2032. Construction is complete with equipment installation underway. (Source: Ford Press Release Dec 15, 2025; Tennessee Lookout Dec 16, 2025)
RAID Log
Risk assessments reviewed monthly. Last review: Jan 9, 2026
| Risk | Impact | Probability | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strategic pivot risk | HIGH | HIGH | EV to gas trucks is major shift |
| Job commitment gap | HIGH | HIGH | 5,800 promised vs 2,300 now planned |
| Political/incentive exposure | MEDIUM | MEDIUM | $884M in incentives for EV plant |
| Action | Owner | Due Date | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gas truck production line conversion | Ford Manufacturing | 2029 | ACTIVE |
| SK On battery plant separation | Legal/Operations | Q1 2026 | ACTIVE |
| State incentive renegotiation | Government Affairs | 2026 | ACTIVE |
| Issue | Severity | Status | Resolution |
|---|---|---|---|
| EV to gas truck pivot | HIGH | RESOLVED | Redesigned for ICE production |
| Decision | Date | Rationale | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Announce BlueOval City | Sep 2021 | $5.6B EV truck + battery complex | Largest auto investment in TN |
| Cancel EV truck program | Dec 16, 2025 | EV demand weakness; profitability | Pivot to next-gen gas trucks |
| Reduce workforce plan | Dec 2025 | Gas trucks need fewer workers | 5,800 to 2,300 jobs (60% cut) |
Upcoming Milestones
Dates from official company announcements and regulatory filings