Megaproject Risk Monitor

Panasonic Kansas

De Soto, KS | EV Battery Manufacturing

Battery Operational Largest US EV Battery Plant $830M State Incentives
78
Risk Score (±6)*
*Margin reflects source timing variance
↑ +8 pts YTD
Last Reviewed: May 12, 2026
Reviewed May 12, 2026 Sources: Panasonic News KS Commerce KCUR
EXECUTING
Original Announcement: July 13, 2022 | Original Target: March 2025 | Current Target: ACHIEVED July 14, 2025 | Delay: 3-4 months initial (full capacity delayed) | Grand opening July 14, 2025. Producing 50,000 battery cells per day. 1,100 employees hired toward 4,000 target. Largest EV battery plant in United States.
$4B
Investment
Largest in KS history
Verified: Jan 2026
1,200+
Current Employees
Target: 4,000
Verified: Jan 2026
30 GWh
Annual Capacity
500K EVs worth
Verified: Jan 2026
4.7M
Sq Ft Facility
300 acres
Verified: Jan 2026
$830M
State Incentives
10-year package
Verified: Jan 2026

12-Month Risk Trend

Monthly scores calculated from weighted factor assessments. Historical data reflects month-end evaluations.

Risk Score Breakdown

Four equally-weighted factors. Workforce and power/grid constraints embedded within. Confidence interval reflects data recency and source reliability.

62
Timeline Adherence
incl. grid queue, permits
Weight: 25%
75
Funding Security
incl. power agreements
Weight: 25%
70
Construction Progress
incl. workforce avail.
Weight: 25%
65
Operator Stability
incl. utility relations
Weight: 25%

Score Change Log

Audit trail of risk score changes with rationale. Full derivation notes available upon request.

Date Old New Change Rationale
Jan 2026 -- -- -- Monthly review; see RAID log for details

Contact info@hccouncil.org for detailed factor-by-factor scoring derivation.

Key Risks

Investment Thesis

Panasonic Kansas held grand opening July 14, 2025, representing the largest EV battery manufacturing plant in the United States and the largest private investment in Kansas history. The $4B facility produced its millionth battery by October 2025. Currently employs 1,200+ workers with target of 4,000 at full production. The 4.7 million sq ft plant on 300 acres in De Soto's Astra Enterprise Park produces 2170 cylindrical lithium-ion batteries at 66 per second when fully operational, enough for 500,000 EVs annually (30 GWh capacity). Kansas provided approximately $830M in tax incentives over 10 years. Economic impact study projects $2.5B annual contribution to Kansas economy and 16,500 construction jobs. City of De Soto reduced property taxes 30% due to ripple effects. Full production timeline uncertain due to workforce sustainability and construction timing factors. This is Panasonic's second U.S. plant after Nevada (which produced 10B+ cells since 2017). Construction started late 2022, opened almost exactly 3 years later. (Sources: Kansas Commerce Jul 2025, KCUR Jan/Aug 2025, Kansas Reflector Oct 2025, Sen. Moran Jul 2025)

SOURCES (Click to verify):
SEC Filings CHIPS.gov DOE LPO

RAID Log

Severity: HIGH Critical pathMEDIUM ManageableLOW Minor impact

Risk assessments reviewed monthly. Last review: Jan 9, 2026

R
Risks
RiskImpactProbabilityMitigation
EV demand slowdownHIGHHIGHTesla sales declining; federal policy uncertain
Full production delayHIGHHIGHMar 2027 target pushed back indefinitely
4,000 job target at riskMEDIUMHIGHCurrently 1,100 hired; ramp uncertain
Tesla customer concentrationMEDIUMMEDIUMDiversifying to other OEMs
A
Actions
ActionOwnerDue DateStatus
Grand opening ceremonyPanasonicJul 14, 2025COMPLETE
Production line 1-4 activationOperationsH2 2025ACTIVE
Workforce ramp to 4,000HR2027ACTIVE
I
Issues
IssueSeverityStatusResolution
Full capacity timeline uncertainHIGHACTIVE32 GWh target; no firm date
D
Decisions
DecisionDateRationaleImpact
Select De Soto, KansasJul 2022$829M APEX incentives; central location$4B investment; largest in KS history
Grand opening ceremonyJul 14, 2025Demonstrate progress to stateMass production at 50,000 cells/day
Delay full productionJul 2025EV demand softness; policy uncertaintyMar 2027 target abandoned

Upcoming Milestones

Dates from official company announcements and regulatory filings

COMPLETE AchievedCONFIRMED OfficialTARGET GuidancePROJECTED EstimateDELAYED Behind
Dec
31
2026
4,000 Employee Target
Full workforce hiring complete. Currently ~1,000 employees.
ON TRACK
H1
--
2026
Zoox Robotaxi Battery Production
2170 cells for Amazon Zoox autonomous vehicles. Announced Dec 2025.
CONFIRMED
Dec
31
2026
Enhanced 2170 Cell Production
~5% capacity improvement via advanced materials. 800 Wh/L density.
PROJECTED
TBD
--
2027+
32 GWh Full Capacity
March 2027 target removed July 2025. Timeline now unspecified due to EV demand.
UNCERTAIN