Megaproject Risk Monitor

Hyundai LG Georgia

Ellabell, GA | Battery

Battery Recovering $7.6B Total
55
Risk Score (±8)*
*Margin reflects source timing variance
↓ -15 pts YTD
Last Reviewed: May 12, 2026
Reviewed May 12, 2026 Sources: Hyundai LGES Savannah Now
ON TRACK
Original Announcement: May 26, 2023 | Original Target: End of 2025 | Current Target: H1 2026 | Delay: ~6 months | September 2025 ICE raid detained 475 workers. Construction paused then resumed November 2025. 30 GWh capacity for 300K EVs/year. Adjacent to Metaplant.
$4.3B
JV Investment
50/50 split
Verified: Jan 2026
475
Detained
Sept 4, 2025
Verified: Jan 2026
30 GWh
Capacity
300K EVs/yr
Verified: Jan 2026
H1 2026
Prod Start
Delayed
Verified: Jan 2026
Nov 14
Resumed
2025
Verified: Jan 2026

12-Month Risk Trend

Monthly scores calculated from weighted factor assessments. Historical data reflects month-end evaluations.

Risk Score Breakdown

Four equally-weighted factors. Workforce and power/grid constraints embedded within. Confidence interval reflects data recency and source reliability.

76
Timeline Adherence
incl. grid queue, permits
Weight: 25%
80
Funding Security
incl. power agreements
Weight: 25%
76
Construction Progress
incl. workforce avail.
Weight: 25%
76
Operator Stability
incl. utility relations
Weight: 25%

Score Change Log

Audit trail of risk score changes with rationale. Full derivation notes available upon request.

Date Old New Change Rationale
Jan 2026 -- -- -- Monthly review; see RAID log for details

Contact info@hccouncil.org for detailed factor-by-factor scoring derivation.

Key Risks

Investment Thesis

Hyundai-LG Georgia construction was disrupted by the September 4, 2025 immigration raid, described by media as the largest single-site DHS enforcement action in history. 475 workers were detained, including 317+ South Korean engineers installing specialized equipment. By November 2025, approximately 50 engineers had returned. Battery plant production has been pushed from late 2025 to H1 2026. The $6.3B facility targets 3,400 jobs when fully operational. (Sources: IEEE Spectrum Nov 2025; CNN Nov 2025; NBC News Nov 2025; Automotive Manufacturing Solutions Nov 2025)

SOURCES (Click to verify):
SEC Filings CHIPS.gov DOE LPO

RAID Log

Severity: HIGH Critical pathMEDIUM ManageableLOW Minor impact

Risk assessments reviewed monthly. Last review: Jan 9, 2026

R
Risks
RiskImpactProbabilityMitigation
Hyundai-Kia EV demandMEDIUMLOWStrong EV sales performance
IRA battery content rulesMEDIUMMEDIUMU.S. production addresses
A
Actions
ActionOwnerDue DateStatus
Korean engineer repatriation/returnHR/LegalQ4 2025ACTIVE
Equipment installation resumptionEngineeringH1 2026ACTIVE
Production start for Ioniq vehiclesOperationsH1 2026DELAYED
I
Issues
IssueSeverityStatusResolution
Construction paceLOWACTIVEOn track for 2025 production
D
Decisions
DecisionDateRationaleImpact
Bryan County JV2022$4.3B investment; metaplant integration35 GWh initial capacity
LG Energy partnership2022Proven technology; scalePouch cells for E-GMP platform

Upcoming Milestones

Dates from official company announcements and regulatory filings

COMPLETE AchievedCONFIRMED OfficialTARGET GuidancePROJECTED EstimateDELAYED Behind
H1
--
2026
Full Production Operations
HL-GA Battery JV supplying Hyundai Metaplant. Sept 2025 ICE raid caused delays.
ON TRACK
Dec
31
2026
Kia Model Battery Supply
Expanding production as Metaplant adds Kia brand vehicles to lineup.
PROJECTED
Dec
31
2027
EREV Battery Production
Extended Range EV batteries as Hyundai launches EREV models.
PROJECTED
Dec
31
2028
Phase 2 Capacity Expansion
Scale to support Metaplant 500K vehicle/year Phase 2 expansion.
TARGET