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BlueOval SK Kentucky

Glendale, KY | Battery

Battery Pivoting $9.63B DOE Loan
38
Risk Score (±6)*
*Margin reflects source timing variance
↓ -19 pts YTD
Last Reviewed: May 12, 2026
Reviewed May 12, 2026 Sources: Ford Media SK Battery KY CED
CRITICAL
Original Announcement: September 27, 2021 | Original Target: 2025 | Current Target: KY1 SHUT DOWN Dec 2025, KY2 indefinitely postponed | Delay: KY2 indefinite, KY1 terminated after 4 months | All 1,600 employees being laid off. Plant closing February 14, 2026. Ford shifting to energy storage. Plant to be repurposed by late 2027.
$5.8B
Original
JV dissolved
Verified: Jan 2026
1,600
Laid Off
All workers
Verified: Jan 2026
ESS/Grid
New Mission
Data centers
Verified: Jan 2026
23%
Capacity Use
Of 86 GWh
Verified: Jan 2026
2027
ESS Start
20 GWh/yr
Verified: Jan 2026

12-Month Risk Trend

Monthly scores calculated from weighted factor assessments. Historical data reflects month-end evaluations.

Risk Score Breakdown

Four equally-weighted factors. Workforce and power/grid constraints embedded within. Confidence interval reflects data recency and source reliability.

52
Timeline Adherence
incl. grid queue, permits
Weight: 25%
65
Funding Security
incl. power agreements
Weight: 25%
58
Construction Progress
incl. workforce avail.
Weight: 25%
57
Operator Stability
incl. utility relations
Weight: 25%

Score Change Log

Audit trail of risk score changes with rationale. Full derivation notes available upon request.

Date Old New Change Rationale
Jan 2026 -- -- -- Monthly review; see RAID log for details

Contact info@hccouncil.org for detailed factor-by-factor scoring derivation.

Key Risks

Investment Thesis

BlueOval SK Kentucky underwent a significant strategic pivot: Ford ended its SK On partnership in December 2025 and will convert both Kentucky plants entirely to battery energy storage for data centers and utilities. All 1,600 employees were laid off with a final day of February 14, 2026. Ford plans to invest $2B additional to convert the $5.8B facility, producing LFP prismatic cells and containerized storage systems. New capacity expected by 2027. (Sources: Ford Press Release Dec 2025; Ford Authority Dec 2025; WHAS11 Dec 2025; WDRB Dec 2025)

SOURCES (Click to verify):
SEC Filings CHIPS.gov DOE LPO

RAID Log

Severity: HIGH Critical pathMEDIUM ManageableLOW Minor impact

Risk assessments reviewed monthly. Last review: Jan 9, 2026

R
Risks
RiskImpactProbabilityMitigation
Ford EV strategy retreatHIGHHIGHFord scaling back EV plans
BlueOval City gas truck pivotHIGHHIGHTennessee battery plant uncertain
A
Actions
ActionOwnerDue DateStatus
EV battery production wind-downOperationsFeb 14, 2026ACTIVE
ESS conversion engineeringFord Engineering2026ACTIVE
LFP prismatic cell line installationEngineering2027PENDING
I
Issues
IssueSeverityStatusResolution
Demand mismatch riskHIGHMONITORINGFord EV sales below projections
D
Decisions
DecisionDateRationaleImpact
BlueOval SK JV formation2021$11.4B total; Tennessee + Kentucky129 GWh total capacity planned
Proceed despite Ford pivot2024-25SK commitment; government fundingKentucky continues; TN adjusted

Upcoming Milestones

Dates from official company announcements and regulatory filings

COMPLETE AchievedCONFIRMED OfficialTARGET GuidancePROJECTED EstimateDELAYED Behind
Dec
31
2026
Kentucky 1 Full Ramp
F-150 Lightning and E-Transit batteries. Production began Aug 2025. 2,500 jobs for state loan.
ON TRACK
Dec
31
2027
Kentucky 2 Production Start
Second plant delayed from original timeline. EV market demand dependent.
DELAYED
Dec
31
2027
Mid-Size Electric Truck Batteries
Batteries for $30K mid-size EV pickup launching at Louisville Assembly.
ANNOUNCED
Dec
31
2030
Full 80 GWh Capacity
Both plants operational. 5,000 jobs target. $5.8B total investment.
TARGET