Megaproject Risk Monitor

Meta AI Infrastructure

Hyperion (LA) + Prometheus (OH) + Wisconsin + Kansas City | Titan Clusters

Data Center Executing $65-72B (2025)
78
Risk Score (±7)*
*Margin reflects source timing variance
↑ +6 pts YTD
Last Reviewed: May 12, 2026
Reviewed May 12, 2026 Sources: Meta News DCD SEC Filings
✓ $65-72B CapEx 2025 with "Significant Ramp" in 2026
Prometheus (first titan cluster) online 2026. Hyperion scaling to 5GW. $10B Google Cloud deal signed. $29B financing secured including $27B Louisiana special-purpose vehicle.
ON TRACK
Original Announcement: Various (2022-2025) | Original Target: KC 2024, LA 2028, OH 2026, WI 2027 | Current Target: KC OPERATIONAL Aug 2025, others on track | Delay: KC 12-18 months (recovered), others NONE | Kansas City operational August 2025 (recovered from delay). Louisiana "Hyperion" hyperscale campus under construction. Ohio Prometheus targeting 1GW by 2026. Wisconsin broke ground November 2025. 2025 CapEx $65-72B.
$65-72B
2025 CapEx
Up from $28B 2024
Verified: Jan 2026
5+ GW
Hyperion Target
Multi-year buildout
Verified: Jan 2026
2026
Prometheus Online
First titan cluster
Verified: Jan 2026
1.2M
GPUs by 2027
Nvidia + custom
Verified: Jan 2026
$10B+
Google Cloud Deal
6-year agreement
Verified: Jan 2026

12-Month Risk Trend

Monthly scores calculated from weighted factor assessments. Historical data reflects month-end evaluations.

Risk Score Breakdown

Four equally-weighted factors. Workforce and power/grid constraints embedded within. Confidence interval reflects data recency and source reliability.

70
Timeline Adherence
incl. grid queue, permits
Weight: 25%
75
Funding Security
incl. power agreements
Weight: 25%
70
Construction Progress
incl. workforce avail.
Weight: 25%
69
Operator Stability
incl. utility relations
Weight: 25%

Score Change Log

Audit trail of risk score changes with rationale. Full derivation notes available upon request.

Date Old New Change Rationale
Jan 2026 -- -- -- Monthly review; see RAID log for details

Contact info@hccouncil.org for detailed factor-by-factor scoring derivation.

Key Risks

Investment Thesis

Meta Hyperion broke ground December 2024 in Richland Parish, Louisiana. Investment has grown from $10B to $27B, with President Trump suggesting it could reach $50B at full build-out. The 2,250-acre campus will house 4 million square feet (approximately 70 football fields) with 2+ GW compute capacity for training Llama AI models. Blue Owl Capital holds 80% ownership. First phase operational expected 2028, full completion 2030. Entergy is investing $3.2B in three new natural gas generators nearby. 500+ permanent jobs. (Sources: NOLA.com Oct 2025; Louisiana LED; DPR Construction; Sherwood News Dec 2024)

SOURCES (Click to verify):
SEC Filings CHIPS.gov DOE LPO

RAID Log

Severity: HIGH Critical pathMEDIUM ManageableLOW Minor impact

Risk assessments reviewed monthly. Last review: Jan 9, 2026

R
Risks
RiskImpactProbabilityMitigation
Power availabilityHIGHHIGHLouisiana grid capacity constraints
AI infrastructure demandLOWLOWLlama model training requires substantial compute
Water consumptionMEDIUMMEDIUMCooling requirements in Louisiana climate
A
Actions
ActionOwnerDue DateStatus
Phase 1 data hall construction (4M sq ft)DPR Construction2028ACTIVE
Entergy 2+ GW power infrastructureEntergy Louisiana2027-2030ACTIVE
Blue Owl Capital JV financingFinanceOngoingCOMPLETE
I
Issues
IssueSeverityStatusResolution
Louisiana grid capacityHIGHACTIVEEntergy infrastructure discussions
D
Decisions
DecisionDateRationaleImpact
Louisiana Hyperion campus2024$10B+ investment; AI training focusLargest Meta data center
Nuclear power exploration2024Clean baseload for AI computeEvaluating SMR options

Upcoming Milestones

Dates from official company announcements and regulatory filings

COMPLETE AchievedCONFIRMED OfficialTARGET GuidancePROJECTED EstimateDELAYED Behind
Jun
--
2026
Peak Construction Workforce
5,000 workers. Currently 3,700. $875M contracted with LA businesses.
ON TRACK
Dec
31
2027
1.5 GW Interim Milestone
First major compute capacity online. Entergy 2.3 GW gas plant buildout.
PROJECTED
Dec
31
2028
Phase 1 Operational
2 GW capacity. 4M sq ft campus. 500+ permanent jobs. AI training cluster.
TARGET
Dec
31
2030
Full 5 GW Expansion
$27B total investment. World's largest data center. Superintelligence Labs.
TARGET