Google AI Infrastructure

PJM Region (13 States) + VA/IN | Alphabet/Google Cloud

Data Center Executing $75B (2025)

Risk Score (±7)*

*Margin reflects source timing variance

↑ +10 pts YTD

Last Reviewed: May 12, 2026

Reviewed May 12, 2026 Sources: Google Blog CNBC SEC Filings

✓ $25B PJM Investment Announced July 2025

Ruth Porat announced at PA Energy Summit with President Trump. $3B for two PA hydropower plant modernization. $4.75B Intersect acquisition (Dec 2025) for multi-GW pipeline.

$75B

2025 CapEx

+40% YoY

Verified: Jan 2026

$25B

PJM Investment

Next 2 years

Verified: Jan 2026

3 GW

Hydro PPAs

Brookfield deal

Verified: Jan 2026

$4.75B

Intersect Acq

Dec 2025

Verified: Jan 2026

PJM States

Including N. Virginia

Verified: Jan 2026

12-Month Risk Trend

Monthly scores calculated from weighted factor assessments. Historical data reflects month-end evaluations.

Risk Score Breakdown

Four equally-weighted factors. Workforce and power/grid constraints embedded within. Confidence interval reflects data recency and source reliability.

Timeline Adherence

incl. grid queue, permits

Weight: 25%

Funding Security

incl. power agreements

Weight: 25%

Construction Progress

incl. workforce avail.

Weight: 25%

Operator Stability

incl. utility relations

Weight: 25%

Score Change Log

Audit trail of risk score changes with rationale. Full derivation notes available upon request.

Date	Old	New	Change	Rationale
Jan 2026	--	--	--	Monthly review; see RAID log for details

Contact info@hccouncil.org for detailed factor-by-factor scoring derivation.

Key Risks

Investment Thesis

Google announced substantial U.S. investments totaling more than $76B: $40B through 2027 for three new Texas campuses in Armstrong and Haskell counties; $25B across PJM Region including $3B for hydropower modernization; $9B in Virginia through 2026; $2B Fort Wayne, Indiana campus. Google secured nuclear agreements with Kairos Power (500 MW SMRs by 2035), NextEra Energy (615 MW Iowa plant revival by 2029), and Commonwealth Fusion Systems (200 MW fusion by early 2030s). In December 2025, Google acquired Intersect Power for $4.75B. 2025 CapEx is $75B globally. (Sources: CoStar Nov 2025; Texas Tribune Nov 2025; CNBC Dec 2025)

SOURCES (Click to verify):

SEC Filings CHIPS.gov DOE LPO

RAID Log

Severity: HIGH Critical pathMEDIUM ManageableLOW Minor impact

Risk assessments reviewed monthly. Last review: Jan 9, 2026

Risks

Risk	Impact	Probability	Mitigation
Power procurement	HIGH	MEDIUM	24/7 carbon-free energy commitment
Regulatory approvals	MEDIUM	MEDIUM	Multiple jurisdictions

Actions

Action	Owner	Due Date	Status
Texas $40B campus construction (3 sites)	Google Development	2025-2027	ACTIVE
Kairos Power 500 MW SMR agreement	Energy/Legal	2035	ACTIVE
Intersect Power acquisition integration	M&A	H1 2026	ACTIVE

Issues

Issue	Severity	Status	Resolution
24/7 carbon-free target	MEDIUM	ACTIVE	Nuclear and renewable PPAs

Decisions

Decision	Date	Rationale	Impact
$1B+ Kansas City campus	2024	TPU training infrastructure	Gemini model development
Nuclear power agreements	2024	Kairos SMR; PPA discussions	Clean baseload strategy

Upcoming Milestones

Dates from official company announcements and regulatory filings

COMPLETE AchievedCONFIRMED OfficialTARGET GuidancePROJECTED EstimateDELAYED Behind

Dec

2026

Virginia Expansion Complete

$9B investment through 2026. New Chesterfield County data center. AI skills training.

ON TRACK

Dec

2026

Texas West Data Centers

$40B investment. Three AI hubs in Armstrong/Haskell. $30M Energy Impact Fund.

ANNOUNCED

Dec

2026

Munich Arnulfpost Expansion

30,000 sqm office for 2,000 Googlers. Part of €5.5B Germany investment 2026-2029.

CONFIRMED

Dec

2027

Significant CapEx Increase

Beyond $91-93B 2025 spend. $155B cloud backlog. Ironwood TPU gen-7 rollout.

PROJECTED