Amazon AWS Expansion

PA ($20B) + NC ($10B) + IN ($15B) + MS ($3B) + Global

Data Center Executing $100B (2025)

Risk Score (±6)*

*Margin reflects source timing variance

↑ +8 pts YTD

Last Reviewed: May 12, 2026

Reviewed May 12, 2026 Sources: AWS Blog DCD SEC Filings

✓ $100B 2025 CapEx with Record State Investments

$20B Pennsylvania (largest private investment in state history). $15B Indiana (Nov 2025). $10B North Carolina. $50B US government AI/supercomputing. CEO Jassy: "AI is biggest opportunity since cloud."

~$100B

2025 CapEx

$26.3B/quarter

Verified: Jan 2026

$20B

Pennsylvania

Largest in PA history

Verified: Jan 2026

$50B

US Gov AI

Nov 2025

Verified: Jan 2026

1,750+

New Jobs

PA + NC direct

Verified: Jan 2026

Trainium

Custom Silicon

+ Inferentia

Verified: Jan 2026

12-Month Risk Trend

Monthly scores calculated from weighted factor assessments. Historical data reflects month-end evaluations.

Risk Score Breakdown

Four equally-weighted factors. Workforce and power/grid constraints embedded within. Confidence interval reflects data recency and source reliability.

Timeline Adherence

incl. grid queue, permits

Weight: 25%

Funding Security

incl. power agreements

Weight: 25%

Construction Progress

incl. workforce avail.

Weight: 25%

Operator Stability

incl. utility relations

Weight: 25%

Score Change Log

Audit trail of risk score changes with rationale. Full derivation notes available upon request.

Date	Old	New	Change	Rationale
Jan 2026	--	--	--	Monthly review; see RAID log for details

Contact info@hccouncil.org for detailed factor-by-factor scoring derivation.

Key Risks

Investment Thesis

Amazon AWS committed to major expansion totaling over $108B: $20B Pennsylvania AI Innovation Campuses; $10B North Carolina Richmond County expansion; $15B Indiana (December 2025); $13B Mississippi; up to $50B U.S. Government AI infrastructure. The Talen Energy nuclear deal expanded from 960 MW to 1,920 MW in a 17-year, $18B PPA for the Susquehanna plant in Pennsylvania. FERC rejected the original behind-the-meter arrangement in November 2024, requiring restructuring. 2025 CapEx is $100-125B. (Sources: Data Center Frontier; Utility Dive; CNBC Nov 2025; POWER Magazine)

SOURCES (Click to verify):

SEC Filings CHIPS.gov DOE LPO

RAID Log

Severity: HIGH Critical pathMEDIUM ManageableLOW Minor impact

Risk assessments reviewed monthly. Last review: Jan 9, 2026

Risks

Risk	Impact	Probability	Mitigation
Power grid constraints	HIGH	HIGH	Multiple regions hitting capacity
Regulatory pushback	MEDIUM	MEDIUM	Community opposition in some areas

Actions

Action	Owner	Due Date	Status
Pennsylvania AI Campus ($20B)	AWS Development	2025-2028	ACTIVE
Susquehanna nuclear PPA (1.9 GW)	Energy/Legal	17-year term	ACTIVE
Federal AI infrastructure ($50B)	AWS GovCloud	2025-2030	ACTIVE

Issues

Issue	Severity	Status	Resolution
Virginia grid saturation	HIGH	ACTIVE	Dominion capacity negotiations

Decisions

Decision	Date	Rationale	Impact
Multi-state expansion	2023-25	$150B+ data center investment	Largest cloud provider buildout
Nuclear PPAs	2024	Talen Energy agreement	500MW from Susquehanna

Upcoming Milestones

Dates from official company announcements and regulatory filings

COMPLETE AchievedCONFIRMED OfficialTARGET GuidancePROJECTED EstimateDELAYED Behind

2026

Federal AI Infrastructure Groundbreaking

$50B investment for GovCloud. 1.3 GW capacity across Top Secret/Secret regions.

ANNOUNCED

Dec

2026

Pennsylvania AI Campus Construction

$20B in Salem/Falls Townships. Part of $30B PA/NC combined investment.

ON TRACK

Dec

2027

Northern Indiana Campuses

$15B investment. 1,000+ permanent jobs. Trainium/Inferentia chips.

CONFIRMED

Dec

2030

India Expansion Complete

$35B by 2030. Project Rainier with Anthropic. 100B+ annual capex trajectory.

TARGET