Microsoft AI Infrastructure

Azure Global + Three Mile Island Nuclear | Stargate Partner

Data Center Executing $80B (FY25)

Risk Score (±7)*

*Margin reflects source timing variance

↑ +6 pts YTD

Last Reviewed: May 12, 2026

Reviewed May 12, 2026 Sources: MS Blog DCD SEC Filings

✓ $80B FY25 CapEx with Three Mile Island Nuclear Restart

Brad Smith announced Jan 2025 more than half spent in US. 20-year 835MW PPA with Constellation for Crane Clean Energy Center (TMI Unit 1). Targeting 2027 online. Stargate initial technology partner.

$80B

FY25 CapEx

50%+ in US

Verified: Jan 2026

835 MW

TMI Nuclear PPA

20-year Constellation

Verified: Jan 2026

2027

TMI Target Online

$1.6B restart

Verified: Jan 2026

$30B

BlackRock AI Fund

Partnership

Verified: Jan 2026

Stargate

Partner Status

Technology partner

Verified: Jan 2026

12-Month Risk Trend

Monthly scores calculated from weighted factor assessments. Historical data reflects month-end evaluations.

Risk Score Breakdown

Four equally-weighted factors. Workforce and power/grid constraints embedded within. Confidence interval reflects data recency and source reliability.

Timeline Adherence

incl. grid queue, permits

Weight: 25%

Funding Security

incl. power agreements

Weight: 25%

Construction Progress

incl. workforce avail.

Weight: 25%

Operator Stability

incl. utility relations

Weight: 25%

Score Change Log

Audit trail of risk score changes with rationale. Full derivation notes available upon request.

Date	Old	New	Change	Rationale
Jan 2026	--	--	--	Monthly review; see RAID log for details

Contact info@hccouncil.org for detailed factor-by-factor scoring derivation.

Key Risks

Investment Thesis

Microsoft secured a 20-year PPA for 835 MW from Three Mile Island's Unit 1 reactor, with Constellation Energy investing $1.6B to restart the facility by 2028 (rebranded "Crane Clean Energy Center"). The Wisconsin campus (former Foxconn site) received $7.3B investment and expects first-phase operations in early 2026. A September 2025 pause on portions of the Wisconsin project for design evaluation has since resumed. FY2025 CapEx is $80B for AI data center infrastructure. (Sources: Fortune Sep 2024; Microsoft Blogs Sep 2025; Urban Milwaukee Jan 2026)

SOURCES (Click to verify):

SEC Filings CHIPS.gov DOE LPO

RAID Log

Severity: HIGH Critical pathMEDIUM ManageableLOW Minor impact

Risk assessments reviewed monthly. Last review: Jan 9, 2026

Risks

Risk	Impact	Probability	Mitigation
Power availability	HIGH	HIGH	AI demand outpacing grid capacity
OpenAI partnership costs	MEDIUM	MEDIUM	$13B+ invested; compute obligations

Actions

Action	Owner	Due Date	Status
Wisconsin campus Phase 1 completion	Microsoft	Early 2026	ACTIVE
Three Mile Island restart (835 MW)	Constellation Energy	2028	ACTIVE
OpenAI compute capacity expansion	Azure AI	Ongoing	ACTIVE

Issues

Issue	Severity	Status	Resolution
OpenAI compute obligations	MEDIUM	ACTIVE	$13B+ invested; scaling capacity

Decisions

Decision	Date	Rationale	Impact
$80B AI capex FY25	2024	Largest annual data center investment	Azure AI infrastructure
Three Mile Island restart	Sep 2024	20-year PPA with Constellation	835MW carbon-free power

Upcoming Milestones

Dates from official company announcements and regulatory filings

COMPLETE AchievedCONFIRMED OfficialTARGET GuidancePROJECTED EstimateDELAYED Behind

2026

Availability Zone Expansion

East US 2 Virginia and South Central US Texas. Azure Government Arizona 3 AZs.

ON TRACK

Jun

2026

80% AI Capacity Increase

FY2026 target. $80B+ capex. NVIDIA GB300 cluster deployed.

CONFIRMED

2027

Atlanta East US 3 Region Live

Most advanced AI supercomputers. All Azure workloads supported.

PROJECTED

Dec

2027

Fairwater Wisconsin 2 GW Campus

$7.3B investment. World's most powerful data center. Double DC footprint.

TARGET