Megaproject Risk Monitor

CoreWeave Denton

Denton, TX | Core Scientific Landlord | OpenAI Customer

Data Center Delayed 260MW Target
52
Risk Score (±10)*
*Margin reflects source timing variance
↓ -16 pts YTD
Last Reviewed: May 12, 2026
Reviewed May 12, 2026 Sources: CoreWeave WSJ SEC Filings
⚠️ 60+ Day Weather Delays Reported Dec 2025
Summer rainstorms prevented concrete pouring. Design revisions added further delays. Completion pushed to 2026. CoreWeave stock down 56% in 6 months. Failed acquisition of Core Scientific (Oct 2025).
ON TRACK
Original Announcement: November 2024 | Original Target: 2027 | Current Target: ~60+ days behind schedule | Delay: Several months (weather/design revisions) | Under construction with minor delays due to summer 2025 rainstorms and design revisions for GPU performance optimization. Total contracted value $10.2B over 12 years across 6 Core Scientific sites (~590MW total). Transmission improvements expected 2027-2029.
$6.1B
Denton Project
78 acres, 394MW
Verified: Jan 2026
260 MW
Critical IT Load
70MW Feb 2025 expansion
Verified: Jan 2026
2026
Completion
Pushed from late 2025
Verified: Jan 2026
$10.2B
Total CoreWeave
12yr 6 sites
Verified: Jan 2026
-56%
CRWV Stock
6-month decline
Verified: Jan 2026

12-Month Risk Trend

Monthly scores calculated from weighted factor assessments. Historical data reflects month-end evaluations.

Risk Score Breakdown

Four equally-weighted factors. Workforce and power/grid constraints embedded within. Confidence interval reflects data recency and source reliability.

55
Timeline Adherence
incl. grid queue, permits
Weight: 25%
60
Funding Security
incl. power agreements
Weight: 25%
60
Construction Progress
incl. workforce avail.
Weight: 25%
57
Operator Stability
incl. utility relations
Weight: 25%

Score Change Log

Audit trail of risk score changes with rationale. Full derivation notes available upon request.

Date Old New Change Rationale
Jan 2026 -- -- -- Monthly review; see RAID log for details

Contact info@hccouncil.org for detailed factor-by-factor scoring derivation.

Key Risks

Investment Thesis

CoreWeave operates GPU cloud infrastructure at its Denton, Texas data center through a $12B Microsoft Azure contract. The company raised $7.5B debt financing in 2024, the largest private credit deal for a tech company. CoreWeave filed for IPO in late 2024 with $2B revenue run rate. Core Scientific hosts CoreWeave at its Denton facility under a $6.6B 200+ MW hosting agreement. CoreWeave specializes in Nvidia GPU clusters for AI training and inference, serving OpenAI, Microsoft, and other AI companies. ERCOT grid constraints and Texas power availability remain key infrastructure challenges. (Sources: CoreWeave S-1 Filing; Core Scientific; Data Center Dynamics)

SOURCES (Click to verify):
SEC Filings CHIPS.gov DOE LPO

RAID Log

Severity: HIGH Critical pathMEDIUM ManageableLOW Minor impact

Risk assessments reviewed monthly. Last review: Jan 9, 2026

R
Risks
RiskImpactProbabilityMitigation
ERCOT grid constraintsHIGHHIGHTexas power availability limited
Customer concentrationHIGHMEDIUMMicrosoft major customer
Nvidia GPU supplyMEDIUMMEDIUMH100/Blackwell allocation
A
Actions
ActionOwnerDue DateStatus
Core Scientific facility conversionCoreWeave2024-2025ACTIVE
Nvidia GPU deploymentOperationsOngoingDELAYED
Power infrastructure upgradeEngineeringPer phaseACTIVE
I
Issues
IssueSeverityStatusResolution
Critical issuesHIGHACTIVERemediation in progress
D
Decisions
DecisionDateRationaleImpact
Core Scientific partnership2024Bitcoin miner to AI conversion200MW+ Denton facility
Microsoft partnership2024$10B+ compute agreementAnchor customer for expansion

Upcoming Milestones

Dates from official company announcements and regulatory filings

COMPLETE AchievedCONFIRMED OfficialTARGET GuidancePROJECTED EstimateDELAYED Behind
H1
--
2026
260 MW Full Energization
$1.2B expansion. OpenAI AI computing. Delayed by summer storms.
DELAYED
Q1
--
2027
590 MW Total Portfolio Live
Six Core Scientific sites. $10.2B contracted revenue. 12-year terms.
PROJECTED
Dec
31
2029
Transmission Upgrades Complete
New substations. 394 MW power access. 78-acre campus expansion.
TARGET
Dec
31
2037
12-Year Contract Completion
Largest GPU supercomputer in North America. NVIDIA GPU operations.
CONTRACTED