Intel Ohio
New Albany, OH | Advanced Logic
12-Month Risk Trend
Monthly scores calculated from weighted factor assessments. Historical data reflects month-end evaluations.
Risk Score Breakdown
Four equally-weighted factors. Workforce and power/grid constraints embedded within. Confidence interval reflects data recency and source reliability.
📊 Score Derivation Notes (Click to expand)
- Original 2025 target now 2030-31 (5-6yr delay)
- -25 pts: Original Commitment penalty applied
- "Go vertical" milestone achieved Q4 2024
- Ohio 2028 incentive deadline cannot be met
- $1.5B Ohio CHIPS (of $7.86B total) secured
- $8.9B converted to 9.9% govt equity stake
- Only ~$1.5B of $28B invested to date
- -15 pts: Funding deployment severely lagging
- Site prep complete, "go vertical" achieved
- 9.4M worker hours logged through 2024
- Only 156 Intel employees in Ohio (1,500 target)
- -20 pts: Construction slowed, minimal progress
- Intel $18.8B net loss in 2024
- 24,500 workforce reduction (15%)
- Zero Intel 14A foundry customers
- NVIDIA $5B investment provides some stability
Score Change Log
Audit trail of risk score changes with rationale
| Date | Old | New | Change | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2026 | 38 | 32 | -6 | No foundry customer progress; Ohio leadership exodus continues |
| Sep 2025 | 42 | 38 | -4 | NVIDIA partnership announced (+), but no customer commits (-) |
| Aug 2025 | 45 | 42 | -3 | CHIPS converted to govt equity; milestone requirements removed |
| Feb 2025 | 52 | 45 | -7 | Intel memo confirms 2030-31 timeline; 5-6yr delay official |
| Oct 2024 | 58 | 52 | -6 | $18.8B loss disclosed; 15% workforce cuts announced |
Key Risks
Intel Ohio was announced as a transformational $20B investment in 2022, later expanded to $28B to establish a leading-edge semiconductor manufacturing hub. However, the project faces severe challenges. The original 2025 production timeline has slipped to 2030-31, a 5-6 year delay. Intel has failed to secure any external foundry customers despite years of effort. The company's financial distress, with significant losses and workforce reductions, raises questions about project viability. The $7.86B CHIPS Act award includes milestone requirements that may not be met, risking clawback. Ohio's lack of semiconductor workforce infrastructure compounds execution challenges. While the strategic importance remains high, Intel's ability to execute is severely compromised.
RAID Log
Risk assessments reviewed monthly. Last review: Jan 9, 2026. Sources: Intel Newsroom, Commerce.gov, NBC4 Columbus, Ohio Capital Journal
| Risk | Impact | Probability | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zero Intel 14A foundry customers | CRITICAL | HIGH | NVIDIA partnership, aggressive sales |
| Ohio 2028 incentive deadline conflict | HIGH | HIGH | $2B state package requires renegotiation |
| 5-6 year schedule delay | HIGH | CERTAIN | Feb 2025 timeline confirmed 2030-31 |
| Leadership instability | HIGH | HIGH | 8 Ohio One leaders departed since July 2025 |
| CEO Tan conflict of interest concerns | MEDIUM | MEDIUM | Startup investment controversies ongoing |
| Action | Owner | Due Date | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Site preparation and basement | Intel/Bechtel | Q4 2024 | COMPLETE |
| "Go vertical" milestone | Intel | Q4 2024 | ACHIEVED |
| Government equity conversion ($8.9B) | Trump Admin | Aug 2025 | COMPLETE |
| NVIDIA partnership ($5B stake) | Intel/NVIDIA | Dec 2025 | CLOSED |
| Fab 1 construction completion | Intel | 2030 | IN PROGRESS |
| Intel 14A customer acquisition | Intel Foundry | Ongoing | NO PROGRESS |
| Issue | Severity | Status | Resolution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Production delayed 5-6 years (2025→2030-31) | HIGH | CONFIRMED | Per Feb 28, 2025 Intel announcement |
| Ohio 2028 deadline cannot be met | HIGH | ACTIVE | Renegotiation with state required |
| Zero committed Intel 14A customers | HIGH | ACTIVE | Project contingent on securing customers |
| 24,500 Intel workforce reduction | HIGH | COMPLETE | 15% cut achieved 2024-2025 |
| Ohio One leadership exodus | MEDIUM | ACTIVE | Replacement hiring underway |
| Only 156 Intel employees in Ohio | MEDIUM | ACTIVE | 1,500 target years away |
| Decision | Date | Rationale | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Select New Albany, OH site | Jan 2022 | $2B state incentives, land availability | $20B initial commitment |
| Groundbreaking with President Biden | Sep 2022 | CHIPS Act passage, political support | Construction began |
| Expand investment to $28B | Mar 2024 | CHIPS Act opportunity | Two-fab Phase 1 |
| Delay production to 2030-31 | Feb 2025 | No customers, financial constraints | 5-6 year delay confirmed |
| Convert CHIPS to 9.9% govt equity | Aug 2025 | Trump admin restructuring | $8.9B equity stake |
| Accept NVIDIA $5B investment | Sep 2025 | Strategic partnership, capital | 4.5% NVIDIA ownership |
Upcoming Milestones
Dates from Intel Newsroom, Commerce.gov announcements, and Ohio state filings