Megaproject Risk Monitor

Texas Instruments Sherman

Sherman, TX | 300mm Analog/Embedded Processing

Semiconductor Producing $1.6B CHIPS Finalized Austin Commercial GC
88
Risk Score (±3)*
*Margin reflects source timing variance
↑ +10 pts YTD
Last Reviewed: May 12, 2026
Reviewed May 12, 2026 Sources: TI News Commerce.gov SEC Filings
✓ PRODUCTION STARTED December 17, 2025
Governor Abbott ribbon cutting. SM1 in production just 3.5 years after groundbreaking. Tens of millions of chips daily. SM2 shell complete.
EXECUTING
Original Announcement: November 17, 2021 | Original Target: 2025 | Current Target: 2025 (ACHIEVED) | Delay: NONE | TI delivered precisely on schedule. SM1 began production December 17, 2025 after 3.5 years of construction. SM2 shell complete and ready to ramp based on market demand. Largest foundational semiconductor manufacturer in the U.S. $1.6B CHIPS award finalized.
$60B+
Total US Investment
$40B Sherman potential
Verified: Jan 2026
$1.6B
CHIPS Award
Finalized Dec 2024
Verified: Jan 2026
4 Fabs
Sherman Planned
SM1-SM4
Verified: Jan 2026
2,000+
Direct Jobs
+ 20K construction
Verified: Jan 2026
Dec 2025
SM1 Production
Ribbon cutting
Verified: Jan 2026

12-Month Risk Trend

Monthly scores calculated from weighted factor assessments. Historical data reflects month-end evaluations.

Risk Score Breakdown

Four equally-weighted factors. Workforce and power/grid constraints embedded within. Confidence interval reflects data recency and source reliability.

95
Timeline Adherence
incl. grid queue, permits
Weight: 25%
98
Funding Security
incl. power agreements
Weight: 25%
95
Construction Progress
incl. workforce avail.
Weight: 25%
92
Operator Stability
incl. utility relations
Weight: 25%

Score Change Log

Audit trail of risk score changes with rationale. Full derivation notes available upon request.

Date Old New Change Rationale
Jan 2026 -- -- -- Monthly review; see RAID log for details

Contact info@hccouncil.org for detailed factor-by-factor scoring derivation.

Investment Thesis

Texas Instruments Sherman represents the gold standard in U.S. semiconductor expansion. SM1 began production December 17, 2025, just 3.5 years after groundbreaking (May 2022), demonstrating exceptional execution. Governor Abbott attended ribbon cutting. TI's $60B+ U.S. manufacturing investment includes 7 connected 300mm fabs across Texas (Sherman, Richardson, Dallas) and Utah (Lehi). Commerce finalized $1.6B CHIPS award December 2024 plus expected $6-8B Treasury investment tax credit. Strategic partnerships announced June 2025 with Apple, Ford, Medtronic, NVIDIA, and SpaceX for foundational analog and embedded processing chips. SM2 exterior shell complete, construction ongoing. SM3 and SM4 planned for future demand. Sherman complex could produce 100M+ chips daily at full buildout. LEED Gold certified, 100% renewable electricity, 70% water reuse target. Austin Commercial serving as general contractor. TI is largest foundational semiconductor manufacturer in U.S. (Sources: TI.com Dec 2025, Texas Governor Dec 2025, NIST Dec 2024, ENR Feb 2025)

SOURCES (Click to verify):
SEC Filings CHIPS.gov DOE LPO

RAID Log

Severity: HIGH Critical pathMEDIUM ManageableLOW Minor impact

Risk assessments reviewed monthly. Last review: Jan 9, 2026

R
Risks
RiskImpactProbabilityMitigation
Analog semiconductor cycle downturnMEDIUMLOWDiversified end markets, inventory management
Dallas-area labor competitionLOWMEDIUMStrong employer brand, competitive compensation
Equipment delivery delaysMEDIUMLOWLong-term supplier relationships, early ordering
A
Actions
ActionOwnerDue DateStatus
Fab 1 production rampTI OperationsQ4 2024COMPLETE
Fab 2 equipment installationTI OperationsQ2 2025ACTIVE
Fab 2 cleanroom qualificationTI OperationsQ4 2025UPCOMING
Fab 3 shell construction decisionTI Board2026PENDING
I
Issues
IssueSeverityStatusResolution
None materialLOWN/AProject executing to plan
D
Decisions
DecisionDateRationaleImpact
Select Sherman, TX for mega-fab complex2021Central location, infrastructure, incentives$30B investment, 3,000 jobs
Self-fund without CHIPS Act2022Avoid government strings, faster executionFull operational flexibility
Fab 3/4 timing based on demandOngoingCapital discipline, market conditionsOptionality preserved

Upcoming Milestones

Dates from official company announcements and regulatory filings

COMPLETE AchievedCONFIRMED OfficialTARGET GuidancePROJECTED EstimateDELAYED Behind
Jan
15
2025
Fab 2 Equipment Move-In Complete
Major equipment installation milestone for second fab.
UPCOMING
Mar
31
2025
Fab 1 Full Utilization
First fab reaches full production capacity.
ON TRACK
Sep
30
2025
Fab 2 First Silicon
Second fab begins initial wafer production.
ON TRACK
Dec
31
2026
Fab 3 Construction Decision
Board review of third fab timing based on market conditions.
PENDING