Megaproject Risk Monitor

First Solar US

Multiple | Solar

Solar Expanding $4.5B Invested
92
Risk Score (±3)*
*Margin reflects source timing variance
↑ +18 pts YTD
Last Reviewed: May 12, 2026
Reviewed May 12, 2026 Sources: First Solar IR PV Magazine SEC Filings
EXECUTING
Original Announcement: Various 2021-2025 | Original Target: Ohio 2023, Alabama 2025, Louisiana H1 2026 | Current Target: All ACHIEVED on or AHEAD of schedule | Delay: NONE | Ohio operational 2023. Alabama operational Sept 2024 (1 YEAR EARLY). Louisiana began production July 2025 (ahead of schedule). Only US-headquartered top-10 global solar manufacturer.
$4.5B
Total Invested
Since 2019
Verified: Jan 2026
5,500+
U.S. Jobs
By end 2026
Verified: Jan 2026
14 GW
U.S. Capacity
17.7 GW by 2027
Verified: Jan 2026
Jul 2025
LA Production
Ahead schedule
Verified: Jan 2026
5
U.S. Factories
+SC 2026
Verified: Jan 2026

12-Month Risk Trend

Monthly scores calculated from weighted factor assessments. Historical data reflects month-end evaluations.

Risk Score Breakdown

Four equally-weighted factors. Workforce and power/grid constraints embedded within. Confidence interval reflects data recency and source reliability.

90
Timeline Adherence
incl. grid queue, permits
Weight: 25%
92
Funding Security
incl. power agreements
Weight: 25%
88
Construction Progress
incl. workforce avail.
Weight: 25%
90
Operator Stability
incl. utility relations
Weight: 25%

Score Change Log

Audit trail of risk score changes with rationale. Full derivation notes available upon request.

Date Old New Change Rationale
Jan 2026 -- -- -- Monthly review; see RAID log for details

Contact info@hccouncil.org for detailed factor-by-factor scoring derivation.

Key Risks

Investment Thesis

First Solar inaugurated its $1.1B, 3.5 GW thin-film CdTe facility in Lawrence County, Alabama in September 2024, the company's first plant outside Ohio. It is likely the largest investment ever in a rural Alabama county. A sister $1.1B Louisiana facility is expected H2 2025. First Solar employs 800+ workers and is the only U.S.-headquartered company among the world's 10 largest solar manufacturers. The company benefits significantly from IRA Section 45X manufacturing credits. (Sources: Business Alabama Sep 2024; Made in Alabama Sep 2024; Semiconductor Today Sep 2024)

SOURCES (Click to verify):
SEC Filings CHIPS.gov DOE LPO

RAID Log

Severity: HIGH Critical pathMEDIUM ManageableLOW Minor impact

Risk assessments reviewed monthly. Last review: Jan 9, 2026

R
Risks
RiskImpactProbabilityMitigation
IRA policy dependencyMEDIUMMEDIUMCredits significant to economics
CdTe technology nicheLOWLOWOnly scale thin-film producer
A
Actions
ActionOwnerDue DateStatus
Manufacturing line installationOperationsPer phaseACTIVE
Module certification testingQualityOngoingACTIVE
Supply chain localizationProcurementContinuousACTIVE
I
Issues
IssueSeverityStatusResolution
Alabama factory rampLOWACTIVEOn schedule for 2025
D
Decisions
DecisionDateRationaleImpact
Alabama expansion2023$1.1B fifth U.S. factorySeries 7 module production
Louisiana facility2024$1.1B sixth U.S. factoryContinued U.S. growth

Upcoming Milestones

Dates from official company announcements and regulatory filings

COMPLETE AchievedCONFIRMED OfficialTARGET GuidancePROJECTED EstimateDELAYED Behind
Dec
31
2026
14 GW U.S. Capacity
Louisiana 3.5 GW ramped. Alabama operational. Series 7 production. AI-enabled.
ON TRACK
H1
--
2027
South Carolina Facility Ramp
3.7 GW Series 6 finishing. 17.7 GW total U.S. $300M investment. FEOC compliant.
PROJECTED
Dec
31
2027
Full Employment Scale
5,500+ U.S. employees. 30,060 total jobs supported. $2.8B annual labor income.
TARGET
Dec
31
2028
25 GW Global Leadership
$4.5B+ U.S. investment. CdTe thin-film dominance. Perovskite R&D advancing.
TARGET