Megaproject Risk Scoring Methodology
Version 3.0 | Last Updated: May 2026
INDUSTRY BASELINE
McKinsey and Oxford research on megaprojects shows 77% exceed budgets by 40% or more. The average delay across infrastructure megaprojects is 20 months. Only 8-9% deliver on time and on budget. Our scoring methodology is calibrated to this reality, not to aspirational corporate timelines.
Sources: McKinsey Global Institute, "Megaprojects: The Good, the Bad, and the Better" (2022). Bent Flyvbjerg, Oxford Major Projects Programme.
Methodology Overview
The HCC Megaproject Risk Score quantifies infrastructure project execution health on a 0-100 scale. The methodology combines four equally-weighted quantitative factors with a critical adjustment for Original Commitment Accountability. Workforce availability and power/grid infrastructure constraints are embedded within the four core factors rather than scored separately, reflecting how these systemic challenges manifest as project execution impacts. This adjustment ensures projects cannot reset the scoreboard by simply announcing new target dates. Projects are permanently penalized for slipping from originally announced production dates at approximately 5 points per year of delay (capped at -30 points). Projects delivering ahead of schedule receive bonuses of +3 to +8 points.
Risk Score Formula:
Base Score = (Timeline Adherence × 0.25) + (Funding Security × 0.25) + (Construction Progress × 0.25) + (Operator Stability × 0.25)
Where: Timeline includes grid queue; Construction includes workforce; Funding includes power agreements
Final Score = Base Score + Original Commitment Adjustment (±5 to -30 points)
Base Score = (Timeline Adherence × 0.25) + (Funding Security × 0.25) + (Construction Progress × 0.25) + (Operator Stability × 0.25)
Where: Timeline includes grid queue; Construction includes workforce; Funding includes power agreements
Final Score = Base Score + Original Commitment Adjustment (±5 to -30 points)
Scoring Components (25% Each)
Component
Weight
Key Factors
Timeline Adherence
25%
Current schedule vs. announced dates, milestone completion rate, grid interconnection queue position, permitting status
Funding Security
25%
Capital committed vs. required, CHIPS/IRA awards, credit ratings, power purchase agreements
Construction Progress
25%
Physical completion percentage, permit status, equipment delivery, workforce availability, labor productivity
Operator Stability
25%
Corporate financial health, management continuity, customer commitments, utility/grid operator relationships
Embedded Constraints: Workforce availability and power/grid infrastructure are embedded within the four core factors rather than scored separately. Workforce shortages directly impact Construction Progress and Timeline Adherence. Grid interconnection delays affect Timeline Adherence, while power purchase agreements factor into Funding Security. This approach reflects how these constraints manifest as project execution impacts.
Original Commitment Adjustment: Projects penalized ~5 points per year of delay from original announcement (capped at -30). Intel Ohio announced 2025 production in January 2022 but now targets 2030-31, resulting in a -25 to -30 point adjustment reflecting approximately 5% annual value erosion.
Execution Status Scale
Data Sources & Verification
Government & Regulatory Filings
- • SEC EDGAR - 10-K, 10-Q, 8-K filings with material project disclosures
- • CHIPS.gov - Preliminary Memoranda of Terms (PMTs), award announcements
- • Department of Energy - Loan Programs Office commitments, IRA credits
- • FERC eLibrary - Interconnection agreements, rate case filings, rejections
- • EPA - Environmental impact assessments, air quality permits
Grid Operator Queue Data
- • PJM Interconnection - Queue Scope public database (13 states)
- • ERCOT - Generation Interconnection Status (GIS) Report, Large Load Queue
- • CAISO - Cluster 15 queue data, Points of Interconnection Heatmap
- • MISO - Interconnection Queue public database
- • SPP, NYISO, ISO-NE - Regional queue databases
Reference: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory "Queued Up" reports (emp.lbl.gov/queues)
Corporate & Industry Sources
- • Earnings Calls - Quarterly transcripts with management commentary
- • Investor Presentations - Capital expenditure guidance, project timelines
- • Press Releases - Milestone announcements, partnership disclosures
- • State Economic Development - Incentive agreements, clawback provisions
- • County Permit Databases - Building permits, zoning approvals
Research Foundation & Academic Citations
Megaproject Performance Research
- • McKinsey Global Institute (2022): "Megaprojects: The Good, the Bad, and the Better" - 77% of megaprojects exceed budgets by 40%+
- • Bent Flyvbjerg, Oxford: Major Projects Programme research on megaproject underperformance and optimism bias
- • LBNL Queued Up 2024: Only 13% of queued generation projects historically reach commercial operation
- • PJM Market Monitor: 63% of 2025/26 capacity auction price increase attributed to data center load growth
Workforce & Regulatory Research
- • AGC Workforce Survey (Aug 2025): 92% of contractors struggling to hire, 28% of firms impacted by immigration enforcement
- • JLARC Virginia (2025): Data centers contribute 74,000 jobs, $5.5B labor income, $9.1B GDP annually to Virginia
- • DHS (Sept 2025): Hyundai-LG Georgia raid was largest single-site immigration enforcement in DHS history (475 detained)
- • FERC Orders (2024-2025): Amazon/Talen Susquehanna co-location rejected twice, establishing precedent for nuclear arrangements
Key Findings from Portfolio Research
16
Delayed Projects
32% of portfolio. Primary causes: Workforce (6), Financial/Demand (6), Strategic Pivot (3), Grid/Power (1)
46%
Grid Constrained
23 projects facing interconnection challenges. Average queue time now 5+ years (up from 2 years in 2008)
38%
Workforce-Related Delays
19 projects citing workforce as contributing factor. AGC reports 92% of contractors struggling to hire nationwide.
Systemic Constraints: Workforce shortages and grid interconnection delays are the two dominant systemic risks affecting U.S. infrastructure execution. AGC 2025 survey shows 92% of contractors struggling to hire, while grid queue times have extended to 5+ years. These constraints compound with project-specific issues like EV demand softness, corporate financial distress, and regulatory challenges.
Seven-Stage Verification Process
Data flows through seven verification stages before affecting risk scores or generating alerts. This staged approach balances speed with accuracy.
1
Announcement Capture
2
SEC Filing Cross-Ref
3
Permit Application
4
Queue Monitoring
5
Construction Verify
6
Progress Tracking
7
Score & Alert
Discrepancies between announcements and filings raise flags. A $10B project announced in a press release but not mentioned in the next 10-Q suggests conditional or speculative commitment. Data center announced for Q2 should show permit applications by Q3 or status changes to MONITORING.
Update Frequency
Real-time
SEC 8-K filings, material announcements, FERC orders
Weekly
Grid queue positions, construction progress, permit activity
Monthly
Full score recalculation, RAID log updates, variance analysis
Quarterly
Comprehensive reassessment aligned with earnings cycles
Workforce Risk Timeline Methodology
Primary Data Sources
Labor Market Data
AGC/NCCER 2025 Workforce Survey (Aug 28, 2025): 1,342 firms surveyed. Source for 92% hiring difficulty rate, trade-specific shortage percentages.
BLS OEWS (May 2024 release): Median wages by occupation. Electricians $62,350, Pipefitters $62,970, Ironworkers $62,700.
BLS JOLTS (Jan 7, 2026 for Nov 2025): 259,000 construction job openings.
ABC Workforce Analysis (Jan 24, 2025): 439,000 net new workers needed in 2025.
Project-Specific Sources
TSMC: Official spokesperson statement to Fortune (July 2023), pr.tsmc.com press releases, tsmc.com/static/abouttsmcaz
Intel: newsroom.intel.com Press Kit (Feb 28, 2025), CEO Lip-Bu Tan earnings call (July 24, 2025)
Samsung: 2024 Economic Impact Report (April 21, 2025), Texas Governor press releases
DOE: Loan Programs Office announcements, Final Environmental Impact Statements
Peak Construction Workforce: Verified Figures
| Project | Peak Workers | Source | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSMC Arizona | 12,000 | TSMC spokesperson to Fortune | July 2023 |
| Intel Ohio | 7,000-8,000 (proj) | Intel Newsroom Press Kit | Feb 28, 2025 |
| Intel Ohio (current) | ~1,200 | Dorsey Hager, Columbus Building Trades | Aug 2025 |
| Samsung Taylor | 8,868 direct | Samsung 2024 Economic Impact Report | April 21, 2025 |
| Micron New York | 4,500 | Micron official website (micron.com/us-expansion/ny) | Current |
| SK-Hyundai Georgia | ~5,000 | Marketplace report | June 12, 2024 |
| Rivian Georgia | 2,000 | DOE Loan Programs Office announcement | Jan 16, 2025 |
| Ford BlueOval City TN | 5,500 (peak day) | TN Municipal League, TDLWD officials | Sept 2022 |
| Panasonic Kansas | 3,800 | Allan Swan, President Panasonic North America | Jan 2025 |
Regional Risk Rating Methodology
Regional labor competition risk ratings are derived from a composite of quantifiable factors. Thresholds are calibrated against AGC survey data, BLS employment statistics, and the CIR Analytics Construction Labor Market Analyzer (CLMA) framework.
CRITICAL
3+ overlapping megaprojects AND 10,000+ concurrent workers AND trade-specific shortage >70%
ELEVATED
2 overlapping megaprojects OR 5,000-10,000 concurrent workers OR trade shortage 50-70%
MODERATE
0-1 megaprojects AND <5,000 concurrent workers AND trade shortage <50%
Quantitative Inputs:
- AGC hiring difficulty rate: 92% overall, 77-79% for critical trades (Aug 2025)
- ABC annual worker need: 439,000 net new workers in 2025
- BLS JOLTS construction openings: 259,000 (Nov 2025)
- Construction wage premium: +19% vs. private sector average
- Immigrant workforce share: 25.5% of construction, 33% of trades (historic high)
Wage Trend Projection Methodology
Wage index projections use BLS OEWS May 2024 data as the baseline (Q1 2025 = 100), with forward projections based on verified growth rates. Quarters marked with * are projections, not verified historical data.
Historical Baseline (BLS OEWS May 2024)
Electricians: $62,350 median annual
Pipefitters/Steamfitters: $62,970 median annual
Structural Ironworkers: $62,700 median annual
Equipment Operators: $58,320 median annual
Growth Rate Assumptions
Industry average: 4.2% YoY (AGC/BLS, Jan 2025)
July 2025 actual: 3.7% YoY (HBI Fall 2025 report)
Projection basis: 3.7-4.2% annual rate
Ironworkers premium: +0.9% above average (78% difficulty, up from 69%)
Important: Wage projections beyond Q3 2025 are estimates based on trend extrapolation.
Actual wage growth may vary significantly due to project delays, policy changes, or labor market shifts.
Users should verify current wage data before making decisions.
Material Project Updates (Dec 2025)
Several tracked projects experienced significant changes in late 2025. These updates are reflected in current risk assessments.
Ford BlueOval City Tennessee
EV production plans scrapped December 15, 2025. Facility renamed "Tennessee Truck Plant" for gas-powered vehicles.
Production delayed to 2029. Jobs revised from 5,800 to 2,300. Source: Ford official announcement, Tennessee Lookout.
Ford-SK On Kentucky (BlueOval SK)
Joint venture dissolved December 2025. All 1,600 employees to be laid off by February 14, 2026.
Ford taking over plants for battery energy storage systems. Source: WDRB, Lane Report, WKU Public Radio.
SK-Hyundai Georgia (HL-GA Battery)
ICE raid September 4, 2025 detained 475 workers. Largest single-site immigration enforcement in DHS history.
Construction delayed 2-3 months. HL-GA production delayed to H1 2026. Source: CBS News, HSI, Bloomberg (CEO Muñoz).
Intel Ohio
"Further slowing" announced July 24, 2025 by CEO Lip-Bu Tan. Current workforce ~1,200 (17% of 7,000 projected peak).
Production target delayed to 2030-2031. Source: Intel earnings call, Columbus Building Trades, Ohio Capital Journal.
Data Verification Standards
All workforce data displayed in the Workforce Risk Timeline meets the following verification requirements:
Primary Source Priority
Company investor relations, SEC filings, official press releases, government agency announcements (DOE, Commerce, BLS)
Secondary Source Criteria
News reports citing named company officials or government spokespersons. Unattributed figures are excluded.
Projection Disclosure
Forward-looking data points are marked with asterisks (*) and methodology is documented. Projections use stated assumptions.
Update Frequency
Workforce data verified quarterly. Material changes (delays, pivots, enforcement actions) updated within 72 hours.
Last comprehensive verification: January 10, 2026
Data corrections: Submit to info@hccouncil.org
Disclaimer: The HCC Megaproject Risk Score is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Scores reflect our assessment of project execution risk based on publicly available information and proprietary analysis. All data should be independently verified before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Methodology subject to periodic refinement as market conditions evolve.
Methodology Inquiries
Our methodology is designed to withstand scrutiny from institutional investors, media organizations, and regulatory bodies. We welcome questions about our scoring approach, data sources, and verification procedures.
Research & Data Corrections
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