Grid & Power Constraints
Interconnection queue delays, power capacity shortfalls, and project-level impacts on infrastructure execution
10
Projects Power-Impacted
7 data centers + 3 semiconductors
4-5 yrs
Median Queue Time
Up from <2 years in 2008
2,300 GW
National Queue Capacity
2x current U.S. installed
~20%
Completion Rate
Of queued projects reach operation
Key Finding
Power constraints are the dominant systemic risk for data center and semiconductor projects, affecting 10 of 50 tracked projects (20% overall, but 100% of data centers). All 7 data center profiles face some form of power constraint, from queue delays to workaround deployments. Companies with existing power positions or creative workarounds (gas turbines, nuclear PPAs, utility JVs) are executing while those waiting in interconnection queues face multi-year delays. The December 17, 2025 PJM capacity auction fell 6,517 MW (UCAP) short of RTO reliability targets for the first time in history, with data center demand cited as the primary driver of a 5,250 MW increase in PJM's demand forecast.
Regional Grid Status
PJM Interconnection
Critical
4-5 yrs
Median Queue Time
32 GW
DC Growth by 2030
94%
DC Share of Growth
13 states
Coverage
Key issues: Dec 17, 2025 auction fell 6,517 MW short of RTO reliability target. FERC Dec 18, 2025 ordered PJM to develop colocation rules. Critical Issue Fast Path launched Aug 2025.
ERCOT (Texas)
Critical
233 GW
Queue Capacity
~4x
YoY Growth
73%
Data Centers
3-5 yrs
Wait Time
Key issues: Queue nearly quadrupled from 63 GW (Dec 2024) per ERCOT Dec 9, 2025 board meeting. Only ~7.5 GW approved/connected. Texas SB6 reforms (Jun 20, 2025) require $100K study fees and curtailment capability for 75+ MW loads.
Western (CAISO/APS)
Constrained
9.2 yrs
CAISO Avg
350 GW
CAISO Queue
$4B+
APS Investment
4-6 yrs
APS Queue
Key issues: CAISO longest average wait (9.2 yrs). APS investing heavily for semiconductor corridor but turning away some customers.
Source: PJM 2025 Long-Term Load Forecast, PJM 2027/2028 BRA Report (Dec 17, 2025), ERCOT System Planning Update (Dec 9, 2025), CAISO Queue Reports, APS filings, Lawrence Berkeley Lab "Queued Up" 2025 Edition. Data as of May 2026.
Interconnection Queue Timeline Trend
Median time from interconnection request to commercial operation has more than doubled since 2008. Only 19% of capacity that entered queues from 2000-2018 reached commercial operation (Berkeley Lab 2024). The 2025 Edition reports median duration increased from less than 2 years for projects built 2000-2007 to over 4 years for those built 2018-2024.
2008
Baseline
2015
+50%
2020
+100%
2023
+150%
2024
Trend ↑
Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory "Queued Up" 2025 Edition (data through 2024). Note: CAISO averages 9.2 years, some PJM regions exceed 8 years. Projects over 100 MW face median 4+ years.
Projects with Power Constraints
All 7 tracked data center projects face power constraints ranging from queue delays to workaround deployments. Semiconductor fabs face moderate constraints (3 of 11 projects) but are generally manageable with utility partnerships. Battery, pharma, and automotive projects have standard industrial requirements with minimal power-related delays. Industry context projects (not in our RAID tracking) are included to illustrate broader market dynamics.
Data Centers (7 Tracked + Industry Context)
| Project | Power Need | Constraint | Status / Workaround |
|---|---|---|---|
Abilene, TX |
10 GW target | ERCOT Queue | Gas turbines deployed for immediate power. $1B+/year operating cost tradeoff. |
Susquehanna, PA |
960 MW planned | FERC Rejected | Limited to 300 MW. FERC twice rejected 960 MW co-location with Talen nuclear. |
Denton, TX |
260 MW | ERCOT Queue | +18 months for interconnection. 260 MW committed to OpenAI. |
Blackstone QTS Pennsylvania (Industry Context) PPL Territory, PA |
6+ GW shortfall | Generation Gap | PPL JV formed to build dedicated generation. Construction late 2028. |
Richland Parish, LA |
2+ GW | Turbine Shortage | Entergy $3.2B approved. Gas turbines sold out 5 years globally. |
Digital Realty Santa Clara (Industry Context) Santa Clara, CA |
48 MW | SVP Queue | Empty since 2019. SVP $450M upgrade due 2028 (Bloomberg Nov 2025). |
xAI Colossus (Industry Context) Memphis, TN |
2 GW target | Scaling | 250 MW live. MLGW substation built in 97 days (vs 2.5 yr norm). Scaling to 2 GW via gas turbines. |
Multiple |
9 GW potential | Nuclear PPA | Three Mile Island 837 MW restart secured via 20-yr Constellation PPA. Expected online 2027 (accelerated). $1B DOE loan closed Dec 2025. |
PJM Region |
$25B+ investment | Hydro PPA | $3B Brookfield deal (3 GW hydro). World's largest corporate hydro PPA. |
AWS/Talen Nuclear (Industry Context) Pennsylvania |
960 MW | FERC Blocked | Deal collapsed. FERC concerned about grid reliability impacts. |
Vantage Texas (Industry Context) Texas |
1.4 GW | ERCOT | Monitoring queue position. No material delay yet. |
Semiconductors (3 of 11 with Power Issues)
| Project | Power Need | Constraint | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
Phoenix, AZ |
~300 MW (6 fabs) | APS Secured | Infrastructure on track. APS $4B+ investment for corridor. |
New Albany, OH |
~200 MW | Grid Upgrades | Grid constraints secondary to financial distress. Delayed to 2030-31. |
Taylor, TX |
Multi-hundred MW | ERCOT | Queue issues secondary. Primary issue: no customers. |
Source: Company filings, FERC dockets EL25-49/AD24-11/EL25-20, PJM 2027/2028 BRA Report (Dec 17, 2025), ERCOT System Planning Update (Dec 9, 2025), CAISO queue reports, NXT RAID profiles. Industry context: Bloomberg Nov 2025 (Digital Realty), MLGW/Action News 5 Aug 2025 (xAI substation). Data as of May 2026.
Power Workarounds in Action
Companies are deploying creative strategies to bypass multi-year interconnection queues. Each approach trades cost, timeline, or control for speed to power.
1. Gas Turbine Deployment
6-12 months
Deploy on-site gas-fired turbines to bypass grid entirely. Fastest path to power but highest ongoing cost ($1B+/year for large facilities). Requires air quality permits.
Using this: Oracle/Stargate (Abilene), xAI Colossus (Memphis initial)
2. Nuclear Power Purchase Agreements
2-3 years
Secure long-term PPAs with existing or restarted nuclear plants. Carbon-free baseload power at premium rates. FERC Dec 18, 2025 order provides clearer colocation rules.
Using this: Microsoft (Three Mile Island 837 MW, online 2027), Google (Kairos SMR), Meta (Clinton 1,100 MW)
3. Hydropower PPAs
1-2 years
Secure clean power through large-scale hydro agreements. Avoids FERC co-location concerns. Limited by available hydro capacity.
Using this: Google/Brookfield ($3B, up to 3 GW). World's largest corporate hydro deal.
4. Utility Generation JVs
3-5 years
Partner with utilities to build dedicated generation capacity. Bypasses interconnection queue but requires significant capital and utility relationship.
Using this: Blackstone/PPL (Pennsylvania), AWS/Talen (before FERC rejection)
Regional Supply Chain Ecosystems
Anchor projects create supplier dependencies that amplify both opportunity and risk. Delays at anchor facilities cascade through entire regional ecosystems.
Arizona Semiconductor Corridor
TSMC Phoenix Ecosystem
39+
Companies
$37B+
Investment
7,700+
Jobs Created
Key Suppliers: Amkor ($7B packaging), ASM International ($300M), Edwards Vacuum, EMD Electronics. Five suppliers delayed construction in early 2024 due to TSMC timeline changes.
Georgia EV & Battery Ecosystem
Hyundai & SK Battery Cluster
75+
Companies
$21B+
Investment
27,400+
Jobs Announced
Key Suppliers: SK Battery America (3,000+ employees), Hyundai Mobis ($926M), Seoyon E-Hwa, Hyundai Transys. ICE raid Sept 2025 impacted construction timeline.
Tennessee BlueOval City
Ford EV Supplier Park
15+
Companies
$5.6B
Investment
5,600+
Jobs Projected
Key Suppliers: LG Energy Solution (JV partner), Magna International, Faurecia, Martinrea. Project timeline impacted by EV demand softness.
Indiana LEAP District
Pharmaceutical & Battery Cluster
8+
Companies
$15B+
Investment
10,000+
Jobs Projected
Key Anchors: Eli Lilly ($13B+ at LEAP), StarPlus Energy (Samsung/Stellantis), GM/Samsung SDI. Strong execution with workforce development partnerships.
Source: State economic development agencies, company announcements, Eli Lilly investor relations (Feb 2025)
Regulatory Watch
FERC Actions
- Nov 2024 & Feb 2025: Twice rejected AWS/Talen 960 MW co-location citing grid reliability
- Aug 8, 2025: PJM launched Critical Issue Fast Path (CIFP) for accelerated rulemaking
- Dec 18, 2025: Ordered PJM to develop large load colocation rules, create 3 new transmission services
- Ongoing: Order 2023 reforms implementing to reduce queue bottlenecks. 75 GW of interconnection agreements reached in 2024 (record).
State & Regional Initiatives
- Texas SB6 (Jun 20, 2025): $100K+ study fees, site control required, curtailment mandates for 75+ MW loads
- Arizona (APS): $4B+ transmission investment for semiconductor corridor
- PJM: 46 GW cleared queue and free to build. Backlog clearance expected by Spring 2026.
- ERCOT: 233 GW large load queue (Dec 2025), contracted McKinsey for queue optimization
Source: FERC Order Docket Nos. EL25-49, AD24-11, EL25-20 (Dec 18, 2025), Texas SB6 enrolled text, ERCOT Dec 9, 2025 board presentation, PJM CIFP updates
Investment Implications
Lowest Power Risk
- TSMC Arizona: APS $4B+ dedicated investment, power infrastructure on track, Q4 2024 CHIPS disbursements received
- Microsoft AI: Three Mile Island 837 MW secured via 20-yr PPA, $1B DOE loan closed, online 2027
- Google PJM: $3B Brookfield hydro PPA (3 GW), world's largest corporate hydro deal, avoids queue
- Hyperscalers with workarounds: Companies deploying gas turbines, nuclear PPAs, or utility JVs executing while queue-dependent projects wait
Highest Power Risk
- Queue-dependent projects: 4+ year median wait (Berkeley Lab 2025), only ~20% of queued projects reach operation (14% by capacity)
- ERCOT large loads: 233 GW queue vs ~7.5 GW approved, 73% data centers, speculative bubble concerns
- PJM region: 6,517 MW capacity shortfall, first in history, data center demand driving 94% of 32 GW growth
- Projects without power strategy: Samsung Taylor, CoreWeave Denton face secondary power constraints alongside primary business issues
Leading Indicators to Watch
- FERC colocation implementation: PJM filings due Jan-Feb 2026 for new transmission services (firm, non-firm, interim)
- PJM incremental auction: Feb 2027 for 2028/2029 delivery year, first test of CIFP solutions
- ERCOT queue reform: McKinsey engagement, solutions expected early 2026, PUCT SB6 rulemaking ongoing
- Nuclear restart progress: Three Mile Island NRC approval expected 2026, Palisades restarted Oct 2025
- Utility generation JVs: Blackstone/PPL Pennsylvania, additional hyperscaler deals expected
Sources
- PJM 2027/2028 Base Residual Auction Report (Dec 17, 2025)
- PJM 2025 Long-Term Load Forecast
- FERC Order Docket Nos. EL25-49, AD24-11, EL25-20 (Dec 18, 2025)
- ERCOT System Planning and Weatherization Update, Board of Directors (Dec 9, 2025)
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory "Queued Up" 2025 Edition
- Texas SB6 enrolled text (signed Jun 20, 2025)
- Constellation Energy press release, Three Mile Island restart (Sep 20, 2024)
- DOE loan announcement, Crane Clean Energy Center (Dec 2025)
- Company filings and investor presentations
Note: Queue capacity figures represent applications filed, not confirmed projects. Completion rates and timeline estimates based on historical data and may not reflect future performance.