Workforce Analysis
Labor market constraints, skills gaps, and immigration enforcement impacts on infrastructure execution
92%
Contractors Can't Hire
AGC Survey Aug 2025
16
Projects Workforce-Affected
32% of 50 tracked projects
28%
Immigration Enforcement Impact
AGC firms reporting disruption
5
Projects with Layoffs
Demand-driven workforce reductions
Key Finding
Workforce constraints are a systemic risk affecting 32% of tracked projects (16 of 50). Unlike grid interconnection delays (which are the sole cause for many projects), workforce issues typically compound with other challenges like EV demand softness, corporate financial distress, and regulatory hurdles. The September 4, 2025 HSI enforcement at HL-GA Battery in Georgia (475 detained, 300+ South Korean nationals) introduced immigration enforcement as a material risk category for projects with visa-dependent workforces.
Workforce Status by Sector
Batteries
54%
7 of 13 projects with workforce disruption. Layoffs from EV demand softness (SK Battery, BlueOval SK) plus HSI raid at HL-GA Battery.
Semiconductors
27%
3 of 11 projects affected. Intel layoffs (24,500), Samsung Taylor slowdown, Wolfspeed Chapter 11. Advanced manufacturing skills remain scarce.
Data Centers
0%
0 of 7 projects with workforce shortage delays. Hyperscalers executing without labor constraints.
Pharmaceuticals
33%
1 of 3 projects affected. Corporate restructuring layoffs (Novo Nordisk 9,000) but project construction continues on schedule.
Energy & Materials
14%
1 of 7 projects affected (Plug Power critical). Solar, steel, and energy storage executing on schedule.
Automotive
44%
4 of 9 projects affected. GM Factory ZERO distressed, Ford BlueOval City distressed, VinFast critical, Rivian monitoring.
Immigration Enforcement Impact
| Project | Investment | ICE Impact | Timeline Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Ellabell, Bryan County, GA
|
$4.3B | 475 Detained | 2-3 month delay, production target H1 2026 |
|
Ellabell, Bryan County, GA
|
$7.6B | EV Ops Unaffected | Ioniq 5/9 production continued |
Source: DOJ Press Release "Operation Low Voltage" (Sept 5, 2025), HSI Special Agent in Charge Steven Schrank statement, Hyundai official statement
Projects with Workforce Layoffs
Layoffs reflect demand destruction or corporate distress rather than labor market dysfunction. These are symptoms of underlying business challenges.
| Project | Sector | Layoffs | Root Cause |
|---|---|---|---|
|
New Albany, OH
|
Semiconductor | 24,500 Corporate | Financial distress, no foundry customers |
|
Glendale, KY
|
Battery | 1,600 | JV dissolved, EV demand softness |
|
Commerce, GA
|
Battery | Layoffs + Furloughs | EV demand softness (3,000 workforce reduced) |
|
GM/Samsung SDI
New Carlisle, IN
|
Battery | Construction Pause | Design changes, production line redesign (Oct 2025) |
|
Clayton, NC
|
Pharma | 9,000 Global | Corporate restructuring |
Workforce Success Stories
Projects with proactive workforce development partnerships are executing on schedule. Investment in training correlates with execution success.
| Project | Risk | Workforce Strategy | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Phoenix, AZ
|
85 | Taiwan technician transfers, ASU partnership, local training programs | Resolved |
|
Sherman, TX
|
88 | 40+ college partnerships, apprenticeship programs | Active Hiring |
|
Liberty, NC
|
88 | Community college programs, competitive wages | On Track |
|
Kokomo, IN
|
82 | Indiana University cultural integration, Samsung partnership | On Track |
AGC Survey Key Findings
Shortage Impact on Projects
Projects delayed by shortages
45%
Candidates lack skills or licenses
57%
Firms affected by immigration enforcement
28%
Projects impacted by tariffs
16%
Source: AGC 2025 Workforce Survey, 1,342 respondents
Contractor Responses to Shortage
Increased base pay
95%
Increased training investment
42%
Using more subcontractors
20%
Source: AGC 2025 Workforce Survey, 1,342 respondents
National Labor Market Context
Construction Employment (BLS Dec 2025)
5.3%
Construction Unemployment Rate
4.4%
National Unemployment Rate
584K
2025 Jobs Added (Weakest Since 2003)
$58,360
Median Annual Wage (BLS May 2024)
Source: BLS Employment Situation (Jan 9, 2026), BLS OEWS (May 2024)
Structural Labor Shortage Factors
439,000 net new workers needed in 2025 (ABC Jan 2025)
25.5% of construction workforce is foreign-born (HBI Fall 2025, historic high)
723,000 workers needed annually through 2034 (BLS projections)
+19% wage premium vs. private sector average (AGC)
Source: ABC (Jan 2025), HBI Construction Labor Market Report (Fall 2025), AGC
Workforce Risk Timeline
Labor Competition and Wage Pressure
Track overlapping project timelines and trade-specific wage acceleration through 2027
Peak Competition Windows (Verified)
2023-2025: Georgia corridor peaked at 15,000+ concurrent workers across 8 major projects
2021-2029: Phoenix metro sustains 12,000 daily workers at TSMC (verified July 2023)
Sept 2025: ICE raid at SK-Hyundai GA detained 475 workers, largest single-site enforcement in DHS history
Hiring Difficulty by Trade (AGC Aug 2025)
Mechanics
79%
Ironworkers
78%
Electricians
77%
Equipment Operators
77%
% of firms reporting difficulty. 92% overall hiring difficulty rate. Ironworkers up from 69% in 2024.
Regional Labor Competition Clusters (Verified)
| Region | Overlapping Projects | Peak Workers | Critical Trades | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Phoenix Metro
Maricopa County, AZ
|
TSMC (3 phases), Intel Chandler, 39 Taiwan suppliers | 50,000+ | Pipefitters, Electricians | CRITICAL |
|
Georgia Corridor
Bryan, Jackson, Morgan, Bartow Counties
|
Hyundai Metaplant, HL-GA Battery, SK Battery, Rivian, Qcells (2 sites) | 15,000-25,000 | Electricians, Pipefitters | CRITICAL |
|
Central Texas
Taylor, Sherman
|
Samsung Taylor ($40B+), Texas Instruments Sherman ($30B+) | 20,000+ | Electricians | CRITICAL |
|
Central Ohio
Licking, Franklin Counties
|
Intel Ohio (slowed), AWS ($23.8B), Google ($7.2B), Meta ($4B), Cologix ($7B) | 10,000+ | Electricians | ELEVATED |
|
Tennessee-Kentucky
Stanton TN, Glendale KY
|
Ford BlueOval City (pivoted to gas), BlueOval SK (JV dissolved Dec 2025) | 5,500 (complete) | Electricians, Ironworkers | REDUCED |
Sources: AGC/NCCER 2025 Workforce Survey (Aug 28, 2025), BLS OEWS May 2024, TSMC official (July 2023),
Intel Newsroom (Feb 2025), Samsung 2024 Economic Impact Report, DOE Loan Programs Office (Jan 2025),
Panasonic President Allan Swan (Jan 2025), CBS News/HSI (Sept 2025).
See full methodology →
Investment Implications
Projects with lowest workforce risk: Data center hyperscalers (0% affected) and companies with established training partnerships (TSMC, Texas Instruments, Toyota). These projects demonstrate that proactive workforce development correlates with execution success.
Projects requiring heightened monitoring: Battery and automotive sectors show 44-54% workforce disruption rates. EV demand softness is driving layoffs while skilled labor shortages persist for active construction. The Ford BlueOval pivot (December 2025) and SK-Hyundai ICE raid demonstrate how workforce issues can compound with market and regulatory risks.
Leading indicators to watch: AGC quarterly hiring difficulty trends, regional wage acceleration above 5% YoY, and immigration enforcement patterns in high-foreign-born-workforce corridors (Georgia, Texas, Arizona).
Projects requiring heightened monitoring: Battery and automotive sectors show 44-54% workforce disruption rates. EV demand softness is driving layoffs while skilled labor shortages persist for active construction. The Ford BlueOval pivot (December 2025) and SK-Hyundai ICE raid demonstrate how workforce issues can compound with market and regulatory risks.
Leading indicators to watch: AGC quarterly hiring difficulty trends, regional wage acceleration above 5% YoY, and immigration enforcement patterns in high-foreign-born-workforce corridors (Georgia, Texas, Arizona).